This is a conclusion to an earlier post. Read here first if you haven't.
So I imagine it's obvious that I was involved in this hand in this past Sunday's Venetian DSE. The twist is that I was not the hero in this vignette. The hero is actually the villain and I am the one in the big blind.
I phrased the question from his point of view, because I felt I had a good read on the situation and I was interested to see how others might react in the villains shoes.
The villain was over the age of 60, probably of eastern descent. He was relatively new to the table where 70% of us played together for the last 4 hours. He came with about 10 big blinds, and shoved several times forcing folds and once getting called by an under pair to double up over 30k. He did nothing but shove fold until he tightened up after 30k.
I dominated my first table, I had pretty good control over my second with just a couple of thorns in my side. I was changed to a third table at about 6:00pm with 55k (avg 29k at the time). I was the chip leader at my table most of the day. Unless I'm really card dead it's not difficult for me to run up a large stack early on like this. I wait for strong hands and bet them hard. Most of the time I get called. I remember reading recently a comment by Phil Laak who said, "It's 2010, nobody folds."
This new table was very tough for me. In addition to one of the thorns that followed me there, this table had 2 other very strong loose aggressive players....and yes as fate would have it all three were directly to my left. Really made it hard for me to make any moves without solid hands. The few times I raised pre-flop someone would always 3 bet me. Many times I folded. I was leaking chips and then I really took a nose dive when I tried to bluff one of these guys back post-flop and got put all-in. Ooops! Sigh...
I managed to hang around 29k...rarely had a premium hand, got to see about 12% of the flops and could not manage to get even a marginal piece. I was playing squeaky tight and before I knew it I was down to 21k, and I had ZERO control over this table. I was going on 4 hours like this. I felt trapped like a rat by superior players with bigger stacks...all to my left.
So starts my hand. My mental state was not so good but not off the deep end by any means.
It is almost 11pm. 29 out of 103 left. 13 to cash.
Level 9...now I am REALLY the hero
Blinds 500-1000 ...100 antes
Hero in BB with 68off
UTG+1 (62k) loose aggressive - raise 3k
Cut-off Villain calls
For 2k, flatting gets me 4:1 on my money and opens another opportunity to hit a flop. Here I'm looking for two pair or better, and maybe even a good draw.
Hero calls in BB; Pot: 10.3k
FLOP: 7d9d Ac
I check...hoping to see a free turn, but knowing in my heart UTG will never let that happen
UTG+1 raises to 5.6k
Cut-off Villain calls
My stack: ~ 18k
Here is what flashed very quickly into my brain:
1. I have an open ended straight draw 33% to improve.
2. This table has been kicking my ass and if I don't try to do something soon I am gonna get run over waiting for aces.
2. I'm pretty confident villain cut-off has a weak Ace, and I imagine he would call a loose aggressive player in position with a weak Ace, pre and post. He could have had a flush draw...but he wasn't getting the right pot-odds to call. I would have raised or folded with a flush draw. I would have raised with 2 pair or better. My read was right, and he had an Ace. A little stronger than I guessed.
3. Although UTG+1 was a mystery, he was in this position so many times with his light pre-flop raises and c-bets that I had little regard for him. Maybe I should have had more...but honestly if he had something strong I would chalk that up to bad luck.
So the plan is to shove. Why?
1. I have been super nit...I should have A LOT of fold equity
2. I imagine 50% of the time I will succeed with this play, I have done it before in very similar situations, and it has worked....also my polling about what the Hero with AJ should do yielded 50% fold/50% call response.
3. The other 50% of the time I am called I will win 1/3 of those encounters.
4. That means 2/3 of the time I win.
The flaws of this.
1. I'm not really taking the flush draw enough into consideration
2. The Cut-Off Villain is fairly new. I don't know his tendencies as well as I should and I am judging him by his age. Furthermore he has only seen a glimpse of super-nit, not 4 hours of super nit.
3. I have 18 big-blinds and could have held out a little longer before going into short stack mode. As deep as I was, maybe I didn't need to risk myself so much as Rakewell suggested.
4. It is 2010 and nobody folds.
Without hesitation I push all-in.
Almost instantly UTG+1 folds, after a fairly lengthy deliberation the cut-off villain makes the call. I swear I tasted the fold for a moment.
The turn and river bricked...and I went home, dreaming about the hand over and over.
Overall I feel I played well, especially in a field of many exceptional players.