$1,070 Freeze Out NLHE Tournament
103 entrants 29 players left; Level 9
Blinds 500-1000 ...100 antes
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Hero in late position 36k
UTG+1 (62k) loose aggressive - raise 3k
Hero AcJh calls
BB calls (21k) ...playing tight
Pot: 10.3k FLOP: 7d9d Ac
BB checks
UTG +1 bets 5.6k
Hero calls
Pot: 20.5k
BB jams all in.
To Call: ~13k
UTG+1 folds
What should the hero do?
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UTG could have anything semi-good (middle Pair, A-X, and if truly a LAG could be playing gappers and suited connectors)
ReplyDeleteYour decision to call on the flop is bad- because it puts you exactly in this type of situation. BB knows you are either on a draw or have exactly what you have - A with an OK kicker. If you had trips or two pair you are raising. So you either have a draw or an A, and you do.
He just needs to worry about UTG. Since he has a tight image, he can use his fold equity and pretty much make the move with ATC.
I think you have to call. It's unlikely that he's on a set, but two pair is a possibility. I see K-Q, 10-J, 8-J, 9-10, with or without diamonds as more likely.
What happened?
I will post the conclusion on Tuesday...
ReplyDeleteHere is the response Dhat left on my facebook page:
I think you have to fold because with a raise and a call pre-flop he's likely only check raise shoving here with AQ, AK or a set if he's tight. AdXd also possible but esp. with the Hero calling he should be afraid to push with worse. The c...heck raise is showing a lot of strength here. Ad Kd is a likely hand as is 77 or 99 for a flopped set.
So what happened?!
I think his most likely holding is a draw, either straight draw or flush draw or a combination of the two. So you're probably ahead, but with him a lot more likely to be able to improve than you are. Of course, he was trapping with a set, you're virtually drawing dead. If you call and lose, you're down to about 14 BB, which leaves little room to maneuver. This deep in the tournament, that's putting too much of your tourney life in the hands of chance for my taste. I'd fold, preserving a stack of about 27 BB.
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